This is the kind of statistic that every South African should love to see!
I have blogged about Jo’burg policing on numerous blogs from numerous angles. It seems to me that the increasing police presence in the JHB area has proven to have worked. Since 2006, strategic clampdown on crime seems to have worked.
Chief Superintendent Wayne Minnaar said the joint strategy was put in place in July last year.
“We have confiscated more than 1 000 illegal firearms and reduced armed robbery within the inner-city by 63%.
Now there are going to always be the sceptics that question the statistic and challenge the longevity of this sort of result. I say booha to you because this is a start, in fact this is an above average start (63% in fact).
I am also sure that initiatives such as the Primedia’s crimeline and citizens taking more ownership of their safety are playing a large part in the turnaround.
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August 30th, 2007 at 2:29 pm
I dont believe this is true. Probably one of those fake reports, Just look at the news and you will see the evidence.
August 30th, 2007 at 3:36 pm
So because of the news that you hear or see once a day you don’t believe that crime is or can/will go down?
That’s ridiculous! Don’t forget, the media don’t report everything… they report what sells mags/newspapers or airtime!
August 31st, 2007 at 12:50 pm
Nic, I understand you want to publish upbeat news and this in itself sounds very good.
However, (always) be careful with ‘numbers’: “Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.”
Particularly, statistics from stakeholders should be treated with some healthy ‘scepticism’: they have a (political) agenda – SA needs to be 2010-friendly, so they start pouring the good news now. Plus, departments might need funding etc. etc.
Here are some questions: ‘armed robbery’ – does that include knives and clubs or is it only about guns?
‘inner-city’ – exact boundaries are not given – so that could imply that armed robbery and any other form of crime has increased at the boundaries…
Another important thing to remember, with regard to crime and the statistics they throw at you: how do people perceive the situation? Do they feel safer now? Or are they still robbed at their homes, but less in the inner-city?
Even if crime is reduced, it will take time for people to perceive it as such, or rather, to ‘accept’ it, as their memories are not erased on the spot and they keep a bias for ‘signaling’ crime – thanks to the sensational media, crime will always be on the frontpages, thus sustaining the ‘crime-perception’.
No matter how much we want to hear ‘good news’, if it sounds too good to be true, it usually is.
But ok, let’s take this positively: they fight crime, they reduce it in the inner-city – let’s hope this will have a ripple-effect – not only to the outskirts, but to the whole nation.
August 31st, 2007 at 2:09 pm
Jacques I can see where you are coming from and partially agree with your comments. But don’t you think that the way people feel is dictated by media coverage, peer pressure, social “norms” and what is “generally accepted” as the way people feel?
My point is that if I don’t publish this sort of statistic then people will never begin to feel better, in fact no matter what the stats are if people like me and the SA Supporters don’t verbalise and publish good stats then it will never change.
Don’t be one of those “if it’s too good to be true” people. Rather be one of those people who embrace the good with realistic views and expectations. I know that this statistic isn’t all it’s cracked up to be and there are probably a million holes that readers would love to put in the stat, but why? Why do we want to do that to ourselves? It’s not making anyone feel better or less or more safe, it just perpetuates the situation!!
Thanks for your comments, I’m glad you said something!
August 31st, 2007 at 6:37 pm
I know that everyone is entitled to their opinions, and I appreciate an open dialogue even if we’re on different sides, but people need to apply intellectual honesty to their arguments.
I just think it is ridiculous that people use stats to back up their horror stories, and then attack stats when they don’t say what they want them to say.
You can’t have it both ways.
We are all fed up with crime in South Africa, but instead of being excited and positive about this progress, people attack it as false.
P.S. this is not an attack on Jacques, who has some valid points (even though I feel that your argument regarding perceived threat is a weak counter to actual reduction in threat). This is me venting about comments like the top one from Esvl.
September 1st, 2007 at 6:47 am
@ Nic: All I want to say is that you have to be careful, if not suspicious about statistics: not only in general, but particularly when there might be populistic\political motives. Other than that, ask yourself what (high) number they try to make you believe: 63%. In one year? What have they been doing the year(s) before? Or did they start using a new method of registering? Perhaps they didn’t have exact data of previous years, so they ‘estimated’ the number of cases?
So yes, I’m the party-pooper here – not by saying nothing decreased or they did a lousy job – only by saying ‘seeing is believing’ and being cautious.
@ Kate – it was no ‘argument’, regarding perceived threat: it was just the observation that no matter what crime-reduction percentages you throw at people, it takes time for people to accept them and actually become aware of any decrease – as they tend to stick to negative figures, as opposed to positive ones – it’s human nature, which the media know all too well: bad news sells. And what this website is about…
September 5th, 2007 at 5:44 pm
Thats because it has probably moved to Pretoria.
Lets look at the bigger picture
1) We sacked all the experienced cops with our spiffy AA policies
2) Unemployment is still at 40%. If no jobs = crime, why is crime dropping if they still have no jobs hmmmm?
3) Refugees pouring into SA
4) Corruption has never been higher in the police force
5) The courts are collapsing, and jails are over crowded
Now, who in their right mind is going to believe that crime has dropped by 63%? Maybe the people in Government PR that need to do some damage control. As for the realists, we are just not buying it.
September 6th, 2007 at 12:29 pm
So far tagging onto the end of this blog, I see that one individual has an informed and realistic view of statistics. That being Jacques. I believe you have either studied stats at university or worked in a stats field. I have been privy to both, unfortunately. I particulary enjoyed the following “Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.” Herein lies the truth!
I am not sure who quoted this 63% decrease in crime, i.e source is crucial to ratify the information, further to what Jacques has said. Anybody who works in a corporate environment knows that you can pad stats up and dress them anyway you like. It just depends on the parameters you use to do this.
Also I agree with what you say Nic about publishing positive news. But be very weary of the stats you quote in your positive articles. You will start to loose credibility with such flakey figures. Can this stat be corroborated with any others from different compilation sources?
I refer you to the following paper. http://www.gunowners.org/fs0304.htm It was published in 2003, so admittedly out of date. The way this has been compiled and referenced should act as an aide memoir to you in the future Nic when quoting such spurious figures based on the following logic or rather lack there of, “I am so positive that any stats anybody feeds me that are positive must be right”.
Question everything through science, logic and reason.
http://www.gunowners.org/fs0304.htm
September 6th, 2007 at 12:41 pm
CORRECTION
Apologies I read the statement again, that this stat was quoted by the Police, but where was there information compiled from. Police records, an idependant statistics regulator, government?
Further to this why did the minister of Safety and Security, the right honourable minister Charles Nqakula put a moratorium on crime stats? Thats because the way these stats are compiled has changed and who knows how they have reclassified these stats and how they intend to benchmark aginst previous years stats if the parameters have changed.
September 6th, 2007 at 4:13 pm
Thanks Jim.
Found some more quotes: http://www.google.com/ie?q=statistics+quotes&hl=en
I read the article you linked to – disturbing indeed – not only because of the subject of the stats, but also the way how data is interpreted (or manipulated, if you want to).
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